SYED SHAMS uDDIN
Introduction
The Tajikistan-Balochistan water project is a visionary initiative aimed at addressing the chronic water scarcity in Pakistan's Balochistan province, particularly in the port city of Gwadar. The proposal involves transporting water from Tajikistan to Balochistan by navigating through the challenging terrain of the Wakhan Corridor in Afghanistan. The project aligns with Pakistan's strategic goals of securing sustainable water resources while enhancing regional connectivity and economic cooperation.
Feasibility and Support
A feasibility study for the water project has been completed with the support of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and has been submitted to China for review. The potential involvement of China suggests that the initiative could be incorporated under the broader framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). President Asif Ali Zardari announced these developments during the International Conference on 'Regional Connectivity & Pakistan: Emerging Opportunities' held at Aiwan-e-Sadr, emphasizing the significance of regional cooperation in ensuring water security.
Challenges and Considerations
The implementation of the Tajikistan-Balochistan water project involves several critical challenges:
1. Geographical Obstacles: The transportation route must traverse the rugged and remote Wakhan Corridor in Afghanistan, a narrow strip of land that links Tajikistan and Pakistan.
2. Political Complexities: Successful execution requires cooperation among Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and potentially China, necessitating robust diplomatic negotiations to ensure regional stability and security.
3. Technical and Financial Demands: Constructing the necessary infrastructure, whether pipelines or canals, demands advanced engineering solutions and substantial financial investment.
4. Security Risks: The security situation in Afghanistan remains uncertain, necessitating strong security measures to protect the infrastructure and personnel involved.
5. Environmental Impact: Large-scale water transfer projects can have ecological consequences, requiring detailed environmental assessments to mitigate any adverse effects.
Path Forward
To ensure the project's success, the following steps are essential:
1. Multilateral Agreements: Formal agreements between the involved nations to define responsibilities and benefits.
2. Infrastructure Development: Construction of pipelines or canals tailored to the varied terrains.
3. Security Measures: Protection of infrastructure and personnel, especially in areas with potential security threats.
4. Environmental Safeguards: Comprehensive environmental impact studies to ensure sustainability.
While the project has the potential to alleviate water shortages in Balochistan, its success hinges on careful planning, international collaboration, and overcoming multifaceted challenges.
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A Complementary Energy Initiative: Tajikistan-Pakistan Electricity Transmission via Ghizar
Parallel to the water project, another ambitious idea gaining traction is a direct Tajikistan-Pakistan electricity transmission line via Ghizar district in Gilgit-Baltistan. This initiative aims to address Pakistan’s energy needs while leveraging Tajikistan’s hydropower surplus.
Why This Project Makes Sense?
1. Existing CASA-1000 Framework:
o Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan possess surplus hydropower, and the CASA-1000 project (Central Asia-South Asia) is already in place to export 1,300 MW of electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
o However, CASA-1000 bypasses Gilgit-Baltistan, entering Pakistan via Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
o A direct transmission route via Ghizar district would be shorter, more reliable, and avoid Afghanistan’s instability.
2. Shorter and Secure Route via Ghizar:
o Ghizar district in Gilgit-Baltistan shares a border with Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan region, separated only by the Wakhan Corridor.
o Negotiating transit rights with Afghanistan could enable a power transmission line to be built across this narrow stretch, significantly reducing the distance compared to CASA-1000.
o This route would be safer, minimizing transmission losses and avoiding conflict-prone areas of Afghanistan.
3. Energy Security for Gilgit-Baltistan & Pakistan:
o Gilgit-Baltistan faces severe power shortages, relying on unreliable and outdated small hydropower plants.
o Importing electricity from Tajikistan through Ghizar would stabilize local power supply and contribute excess electricity to Pakistan’s national grid.
4. Strategic Benefits for Pakistan & Tajikistan:
o Pakistan gains a stable, long-term energy source at a lower cost than fossil fuels.
o Tajikistan, with abundant hydropower resources, secures a new export market.
o The project aligns with CPEC and could benefit from Chinese investments in transmission infrastructure.
Challenges and Solutions
1. Crossing the Wakhan Corridor:
o The Wakhan Corridor is a narrow (~10-15 km wide) and lightly populated area, making it a manageable transit route compared to other Afghan regions.
o Solution: A trilateral agreement between Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan could facilitate an electricity corridor, similar to CASA-1000.
2. Infrastructure and Investment:
o Constructing high-voltage transmission lines over mountainous terrain is expensive.
o Solution: Pakistan could collaborate with China, which has extensive expertise in building power infrastructure in challenging environments, such as Tibet.
3. Geopolitical Considerations:
o India may oppose the project, as it claims Gilgit-Baltistan as part of its territory.
o Solution: Framing the initiative as a purely economic and environmentally sustainable project that promotes regional development and stability.
Way Forward
1. Feasibility Studies: Pakistan and Tajikistan should jointly commission feasibility studies for the Ghizar route.
2. Transit Agreements: Secure necessary agreements with Afghanistan for the safe passage of power infrastructure through Wakhan.
3. Investment & Technology Partnerships: Engage Chinese investment through CPEC to finance and construct the transmission lines.
4. Upgrading Local Infrastructure: Strengthen transmission networks in Gilgit-Baltistan to handle the additional electricity supply.
Conclusion
The Tajikistan-Balochistan water project and the Tajikistan-Pakistan electricity transmission initiative present transformative opportunities for Pakistan. By addressing critical water and energy shortages through regional collaboration, these projects could enhance economic stability, promote sustainable development, and strengthen diplomatic ties among Central and South Asian nations. While challenges remain, proactive diplomacy, strategic investments, and regional cooperation can turn these ambitious projects into reality, ensuring long-term benefits for Pakistan and its neighbors.
A window to Northern Areas-I, The Muslim dated July 4, 1997. By Syed Shamsuddin Most of our people even today seem quite oblivious of the geo-political position of Northern Areas while the exact historical background concerning Gilgit-Baltistan and where these must stand politically remains yet another subject of discussion. Not to speak of a layman, a person of the stature of Chief Executive of the country, once inquired whether the Northern Areas an integral part of the north west frontier province (NWFP). This happened when he rule the country in the aftermath of martial law. Yet another minister on Kashmir and Northern Areas, during the democratic government that followed, was pleased to tell a member of the northern areas council that he owed his minisitership not to them (Northern Areas people) but to the turbaned man of his constituency, standing at the door of his official chambers. There is infact, dearth of substantial historical evidence as to when exactly man ...
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