KURRAM: IRSHAD BHATTI ANALYZES THE SITUATION

By Syed Shams Uddin Senior analyst Irshad Bhatti critically examines the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government's approach to the ongoing situation in Parachinar, highlighting potential solutions. This discussion, aired on Geo News 23 hours ago on December 26, 2024, featured prominent participants, including Aleena Farooq Sheikh, Mazhar Abbas, Fakhar Durrani, Saleem Safi, and Irshad Bhatti. The focus of the debate centered on the KP government's optimism regarding a peace agreement. Aleena Farooq Sheikh, building on Saleem Safi’s detailed explanation of the conflict, questioned Irshad Bhatti about the reasons behind the prolonged unrest. In response, Irshad Bhatti emphasized a critical shift in the dynamics of the dispute. Contrary to the perception of a two-party conflict, he pointed out the involvement of multiple actors: 1. Afghanistan, 2. Criminal elements, 3. Warlords, This escalation has transformed the situation into a multifaceted crisis. Bhatti illustrated the gravity of the conflict by recounting a harrowing incident. Recently, two young men originally from Parachinar returned to their hometown after spending 6-7 years abroad in Dubai and Iraq. Tragically, they were murdered in cold blood, an act so brutal that it defies description, according to Bhatti. This highlights the dire urgency for effective resolution and a comprehensive strategy to address the worsening conditions in Parachinar. KURRAM: A COMPLEX WEB OF CONFLICT Irshad Bhatti painted a grim picture of the situation in Kurram, where conflicting narratives and fragmented approaches underscore the ongoing crisis. On one side, Mohsin Naqvi is making efforts, while Ali Amin Gandapur engages with separate Jirgas. Statements from Islamabad and the Cabinet clash with starkly different ground realities, highlighting a lack of cohesion in addressing the issues. Bhatti shared a poignant anecdote involving his friend Ayaz Bangash, whose ordeal reflects the region's dire circumstances. Ayaz had to navigate immense challenges just to bury his dying mother. Despite catching a flight with his family to reach Parachinar, half of his family remained stranded on either side of the journey, emblematic of the region's fractured state. Bhatti emphasized to Aleena Farooq Sheikh the multifaceted nature of the conflict: 1. Tribal Warfare: An entrenched struggle between tribes. 2. Sectarian Divide: A Shia-Sunni conflict further exacerbating tensions. 3. Generational Land Disputes: Ongoing clashes over undocumented land claims have led to hundreds of murders over the years. These lands are claimed and reclaimed by groups wielding firearms, perpetuating a cycle of violence. 4. External Factors: The Afghanistan factor looms large, compounded by the presence of Taliban and Daesh (ISIS) factions. Armed groups frequently infiltrate the area, leaving local residents to fend for themselves without adequate state intervention. Bhatti stressed that this confluence of tribal feuds, sectarian strife, land disputes, and external threats has created an explosive situation, demanding urgent and unified action to bring stability to Kurram. KURRAM: A REGION IN CRISIS Irshad Bhatti delved deeper into the deteriorating situation in Kurram, highlighting additional layers of complexity and despair. He pointed out how criminal elements exploit the chaos, pursuing their interests amidst the turmoil. Adding fuel to the fire is the role of hate-mongering social media, where 12 to 14 accounts actively spew inflammatory content. Shockingly, these accounts continue unchecked, while firewalls and VPN restrictions are selectively imposed, restricting ordinary citizens instead of curbing the spread of hate. Bhatti also underscored the role of warlords, perpetuating conflict on both sides of the border. This volatile environment has created a humanitarian crisis in Parachinar: • Harsh Weather: The extreme cold exacerbates the plight of the people. • Food and Medicine Shortages: Basic necessities are critically lacking, leaving the population in dire straits. • Curfew-Like Conditions: For over 80 days, the area has been effectively paralyzed. Businesses are shuttered, and residents are confined within their homes, where hunger and illness claim lives. Stepping outside is equally perilous, with stray bullets threatening lives. The crisis has also trapped visitors, including students and serving personnel who came home to see loved ones, leaving them stranded without means of escape. Bhatti lambasted both the provincial and federal governments for their inadequate responses. He criticized the provincial government’s ambiguous policies and the federal government’s insensitivity, which he described as a political gamble costing the people of Parachinar dearly. He raised skepticism over the government's plan to disarm the locals. Despite proposals to deweaponize the region, Bhatti noted the irony of thriving arms markets surrounding Parachinar. Even if the people are stripped of their weapons, arms would remain readily available, perpetuating the cycle of violence. This stark account paints a picture of a community abandoned by the state, grappling with multifaceted crises and desperately in need of comprehensive intervention. KURRAM: THE COMPLEXITIES OF DISARMAMENT AND STATE FAILURE Irshad Bhatti further dissected the challenges in disarming the people of Parachinar, presenting a grim reality shaped by historical mistrust and systemic failure. He referenced a saying common in Parachinar: "Except for tanks and airplanes, everything is available for purchase," reflecting the rampant availability of arms in the region. He noted that this issue is compounded by warlords in neighboring Afghanistan, for whom the free trade of weapons has been a longstanding family business. Bhatti questioned how Pakistan could effectively disrupt this deeply entrenched arms conduit. Another critical concern Bhatti raised was the aftermath of disarmament. Historically, when locals have complied with government demands to deposit their arms, it has left them vulnerable. In past instances, disarmed communities were invaded, plundered, and massacred by armed groups while government forces failed to intervene. This repeated pattern has eroded any trust in the authorities. Bhatti asked pointedly: • Who will protect the disarmed people? • How can the government assure their safety? The lack of a reliable state presence further exacerbates this mistrust. Bhatti highlighted that in several districts of KP, the government's writ effectively ends after sunset. He criticized the provincial administration, accusing them of deceit and negligence, despite having formed the government three times in the province. Turning directly to the KP government, Bhatti demanded answers: • Do you not know when the worsening situation in upper and lower Parachinar began? This pointed critique underscores the systemic failures and the dire need for accountability and actionable solutions to address the persistent crisis in Parachinar. KURRAM: THE DANGERS OF DISARMAMENT WITHOUT TRUST AND STRUCTURAL REFORM Irshad Bhatti strongly questioned the practicality and fairness of asking the people of Parachinar to surrender their arms to the government, given the grim consequences they have faced in the past. He pointed to the most recent tragedy, where two individuals returning from abroad to their native area were brutally killed, demonstrating the vulnerability of the unarmed in a region rife with conflict. Bhatti cited a chilling example from recent days, where a government-escorted convoy was ambushed. Despite the presence of armed personnel, the security forces fled, abandoning civilians to face a barrage of bullets. Such incidents highlight the failure of the state to provide protection and the consequences of disarming a population without ensuring their safety. He questioned how, in this chaotic environment, the government could ensure even basic necessities like food and medicine reach the affected people. Bhatti reiterated the need to address the root causes of the crisis through concrete actions: 1. Sectarian Conflict: The Shia-Sunni issue must be resolved with sincerity and focus. 2. Land Disputes: Comprehensive land records must be prepared to put an end to generational conflicts over undocumented land. 3. Border Security: The border issues, including infiltration by militants, must be tackled decisively. 4. Hate Speech: Social media platforms spewing hatred must be effectively regulated. 5. Unified Jirga: A single, representative Jirga comprising all groups should be established to mediate and build consensus. Most importantly, Bhatti emphasized that lasting peace can only be achieved if the people’s confidence in the state is restored. They need to believe that disarming will not leave them defenseless and that the government will stand by them unwaveringly. Without this assurance, any call for disarmament is not only futile but potentially disastrous. The path forward, Bhatti argued, lies in comprehensive, long-term reforms that restore trust and establish the state’s presence as a reliable protector of its citizens. KURRAM: THE NEED FOR A LONG-TERM SOLUTION Irshad Bhatti criticized the idea of disarming the people of Parachinar without implementing effective and comprehensive measures, calling it ridiculous under the current circumstances. When asked by anchor Aleena Farooq Sheikh about the ultimate solution to the crisis, Bhatti emphasized the need for a long-term policy to address the root causes of the conflict. He highlighted that the region has long suffered from the absence of a strong government presence and the lack of its writ. To resolve the Parachinar crisis, Bhatti proposed the following measures as part of a sustainable solution: 1. Formation of a Unified Jirga: Establish a single Jirga that represents all groups, ensuring inclusivity and mediation. 2. Restoring Confidence: Build trust among the people by proving that the state is committed to their protection and welfare. 3. Strengthening Government Presence: Deploy effective and visible government forces in the area, ensuring they are present at all times to safeguard the population. 4. Securing the Border: Address and resolve the border issues to prevent militant infiltration and ensure regional stability. 5. Sincere Measures: Undertake genuine, coordinated actions to tackle sectarian tensions, land disputes, and external influences. Bhatti concluded that only through such focused and sustained efforts can the deep-rooted conflicts of Parachinar be resolved and peace restored for the long term.