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GRAPPLING WITH CLIMATE-CHANGE

By Syed Shams Uddin

In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was signed by 195 member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), marking a pivotal moment in the global effort to combat climate change. This landmark agreement represented the first legally binding international accord on climate action, setting forth a global action plan to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with aspirations to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The agreement emphasized the need for global cooperation, calling on all countries to take ambitious measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance climate resilience, and support climate adaptation efforts.

Despite this significant step forward in the fight against climate change, the effects of global warming were already becoming increasingly evident. The State of the Climate report, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), highlighted that 2015 was a year of several critical climate milestones, underscoring the urgency of the challenges ahead. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, 2015 experienced record heat, driven by the combined effects of long-term global warming and one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950. These conditions led to 2015 being recognized as the warmest year on record at the time, with global temperatures surpassing the 1°C threshold above pre-industrial levels.

The report also noted that global carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeded 399 parts per million (ppm) in 2015, highlighting the immense challenge of reducing greenhouse gas concentrations to a level consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. As a consequence of rising global temperatures, sea levels also reached unprecedented heights, driven by the thermal expansion of seawater and the accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets. In 2015, ocean levels were approximately 70 millimeters higher than in 1993 when satellite measurements first began, marking a significant and concerning trend in sea level rise.

In addition to the rising temperatures and sea levels, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events also increased in 2015. The year witnessed an above-average number of tropical cyclones, with 101 cyclones recorded across all ocean basins. These extreme weather events, including powerful storms, floods, and droughts, underscored the growing impact of climate change on global weather patterns and the urgent need for countries to implement the commitments made under the Paris Agreement.

Overall, while the signing of the Paris Agreement was a major milestone in international climate diplomacy, the data from 2015 served as a stark reminder of the ongoing and escalating impacts of climate change. The challenge of keeping global warming below 2°C—and ideally below 1.5°C—remains immense, requiring sustained and coordinated efforts from all nations to transition towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.

Given these developments, the situation has continued to worsen, with the intensity of climate change phenomena impacting the globe more severely over the years. The consequences of global warming are becoming increasingly dire, with tangible effects seen across various regions and ecosystems. One of the most alarming indicators of the escalating climate crisis is the significant net annual loss of glaciers around the world. Glaciers, often referred to as the "water towers" of the planet, are rapidly diminishing, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupting freshwater supplies for millions of people. The Arctic, in particular, has been severely affected, with the Arctic ice sheet recording its lowest maximum sea ice extent in its 37-year history. The Greenland ice sheet, another crucial component of the Earth's cryosphere, experienced unprecedented melting, with over 50% of its surface undergoing thawing in recent years. These changes have directly contributed to global sea levels reaching record highs, posing a significant threat to coastal communities worldwide.

In stark contrast to these warming trends, the Arctic has also experienced anomalous temperature patterns, with some regions recording lower-than-average temperatures. In 2015, for instance, the Arctic's sea ice extent fluctuated dramatically, reaching record highs in May only to plummet to record lows by August. These fluctuations underscore the complex and often unpredictable nature of climate change, which can lead to both extreme warming and localized cooling in different parts of the world.

Another critical but often overlooked consequence of climate change is the increased spread of diseases, particularly in tropical and sub-Arctic areas. The thawing of permafrost, driven by rising temperatures, has begun to unearth ancient pathogens that had been dormant for centuries. A chilling example of this occurred on August 3, 2016, when an anthrax outbreak in Siberia, Russia, affected dozens of people and resulted in the death of a child. This outbreak was directly linked to a heatwave that thawed the frozen permafrost, exposing the carcass of an anthrax-infected reindeer. When the carcass thawed, the dormant anthrax spores were reactivated and spread across the region.

South Asia, home to some of the world's most densely populated regions, is poised to experience severe and disproportionate impacts from the changing climate. The Himalayan region, often referred to as the "Third Pole" due to its vast ice reserves, is experiencing rapid glacial melt, which has already led to increased flooding in major South Asian rivers such as the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. This glacial melt is also causing the formation of glacial lakes, which pose the risk of sudden and catastrophic outburst floods. Rising temperatures in the region have resulted in more frequent and severe droughts, leading to crop failures and food insecurity.

The compounded effects of these climate phenomena underscore the urgent need for comprehensive and immediate action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. For regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, this means not only addressing the root causes of climate change by reducing global greenhouse gas emissions but also implementing targeted adaptation strategies to protect these vulnerable communities. Such strategies could include the construction of flood defenses, the development of early warning systems for GLOFs, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices that are resilient to the changing climate.

Moreover, there is a critical need for greater investment in the infrastructure of these remote areas. Improved roads, bridges, and communication networks can help ensure that communities are better connected and more resilient in the face of disasters. Education and capacity-building programs are also essential, enabling local populations to develop the skills and knowledge necessary to adapt to the new realities of a changing climate.

In conclusion, the situation in mountainous regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral is a stark reminder of the disproportionate impact that climate change can have on the world’s most vulnerable communities. The relentless flooding and the resulting threats to their homes, agriculture, and way of life call for urgent and coordinated action at all levels—local, national, and global. Only through a concerted effort to both mitigate and adapt to climate change can we hope to safeguard the future of these communities and the unique environments they inhabit.

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