Episode 1: A Window to Gilgit-Baltistan

GRAPPLING WITH CLIMATE-CHANGE By Syed Shams Uddin In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was signed by 195 member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), marking a pivotal moment in the global effort to combat climate change. This landmark agreement represented the first legally binding international accord on climate action, setting forth a global action plan to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with aspirations to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The agreement emphasized the need for global cooperation, calling on all countries to take ambitious measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance climate resilience, and support climate adaptation efforts. Despite this significant step forward in the fight against climate change, the effects of global warming were already becoming increasingly evident. The State of the Climate report, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), highlighted that 2015 was a year of several critical climate milestones, underscoring the urgency of the challenges ahead. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, 2015 experienced record heat, driven by the combined effects of long-term global warming and one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950. These conditions led to 2015 being recognized as the warmest year on record at the time, with global temperatures surpassing the 1°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. The report also noted that global carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeded 399 parts per million (ppm) in 2015, highlighting the immense challenge of reducing greenhouse gas concentrations to a level consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. As a consequence of rising global temperatures, sea levels also reached unprecedented heights, driven by the thermal expansion of seawater and the accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets. In 2015, ocean levels were approximately 70 millimeters higher than in 1993 when satellite measurements first began, marking a significant and concerning trend in sea level rise. In addition to the rising temperatures and sea levels, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events also increased in 2015. The year witnessed an above-average number of tropical cyclones, with 101 cyclones recorded across all ocean basins. These extreme weather events, including powerful storms, floods, and droughts, underscored the growing impact of climate change on global weather patterns and the urgent need for countries to implement the commitments made under the Paris Agreement. Overall, while the signing of the Paris Agreement was a major milestone in international climate diplomacy, the data from 2015 served as a stark reminder of the ongoing and escalating impacts of climate change. The challenge of keeping global warming below 2°C—and ideally below 1.5°C—remains immense, requiring sustained and coordinated efforts from all nations to transition towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient future. Given these developments, the situation has continued to worsen, with the intensity of climate change phenomena impacting the globe more severely over the years. The consequences of global warming are becoming increasingly dire, with tangible effects seen across various regions and ecosystems. One of the most alarming indicators of the escalating climate crisis is the significant net annual loss of glaciers around the world. Glaciers, often referred to as the "water towers" of the planet, are rapidly diminishing, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupting freshwater supplies for millions of people. The Arctic, in particular, has been severely affected, with the Arctic ice sheet recording its lowest maximum sea ice extent in its 37-year history. The Greenland ice sheet, another crucial component of the Earth's cryosphere, experienced unprecedented melting, with over 50% of its surface undergoing thawing in recent years. These changes have directly contributed to global sea levels reaching record highs, posing a significant threat to coastal communities worldwide. In stark contrast to these warming trends, the Arctic has also experienced anomalous temperature patterns, with some regions recording lower-than-average temperatures. In 2015, for instance, the Arctic's sea ice extent fluctuated dramatically, reaching record highs in May only to plummet to record lows by August. These fluctuations underscore the complex and often unpredictable nature of climate change, which can lead to both extreme warming and localized cooling in different parts of the world. Another critical but often overlooked consequence of climate change is the increased spread of diseases, particularly in tropical and sub-Arctic areas. The thawing of permafrost, driven by rising temperatures, has begun to unearth ancient pathogens that had been dormant for centuries. A chilling example of this occurred on August 3, 2016, when an anthrax outbreak in Siberia, Russia, affected dozens of people and resulted in the death of a child. This outbreak was directly linked to a heatwave that thawed the frozen permafrost, exposing the carcass of an anthrax-infected reindeer. When the carcass thawed, the dormant anthrax spores were reactivated and spread across the region. Siberia is known to have numerous burial sites containing reindeer carcasses infected with anthrax from repeated outbreaks in the 20th century, which killed nearly a million reindeer. As the permafrost continues to thaw due to climate change, the risk of similar outbreaks is expected to increase, posing a significant public health threat. The warming world is also creating more favorable conditions for the spread of vector-borne diseases. As temperatures rise, mosquitoes, which thrive in warmer climates, are expanding their range, leading to an increase in diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus in regions that were previously unaffected. These diseases, which were once confined to tropical and subtropical areas, are now spreading to new regions, putting millions more at risk. Additionally, cholera, a waterborne disease that spreads through contaminated water, is likely to see a rise in incidences due to increased heat and flooding, particularly in South Asian developing countries with poor sanitation infrastructure. These health impacts are a stark reminder of the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change, which affects not only the environment but also public health on a global scale. South Asia, home to some of the world's most densely populated regions, is poised to experience severe and disproportionate impacts from the changing climate. The Himalayan region, often referred to as the "Third Pole" due to its vast ice reserves, is experiencing rapid glacial melt, which has already led to increased flooding in major South Asian rivers such as the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. This glacial melt is also causing the formation of glacial lakes, which pose the risk of sudden and catastrophic outburst floods. Rising temperatures in the region have resulted in more frequent and severe droughts, leading to crop failures and food insecurity. The combination of these factors, along with the spread of diseases, is exacerbating the vulnerabilities of South Asia's populations, particularly in rural areas where communities are heavily dependent on agriculture and natural resources for their livelihoods. In Pakistan, the effects of rising temperatures have been starkly observed, with devastating consequences for both human lives and the economy. In 2015, a severe heatwave struck Karachi and other parts of southern Pakistan, claiming the lives of more than 1,000 people. The extreme heat overwhelmed healthcare systems and highlighted the urgent need for climate adaptation measures in the region. Additionally, Pakistan's agricultural economy, which is highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, faces significant threats from climate change. Droughts are becoming more frequent and intense, while forest fires, driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry periods, are occurring at an increasing rate worldwide. These disasters not only endanger lives and property but also threaten the food security and economic stability of millions of people who depend on agriculture for their survival. As the global climate continues to change, the impacts on vulnerable regions like South Asia and countries like Pakistan will only intensify. Addressing these challenges requires urgent and coordinated efforts at both the national and international levels to mitigate the effects of climate change, enhance resilience, and protect the most vulnerable communities from the impending threats. The situation is particularly dire for communities living in mountainous areas like Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, where the impacts of climate change are felt more acutely than in many other regions. These areas, characterized by their rugged terrain and breathtaking landscapes, are among the worst affected by the relentless onslaught of climate-induced disasters. Flash floods, a frequent and devastating consequence of the changing climate, have become a near-constant threat to the safety and livelihoods of the people in these regions. The mountainous terrain of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, while stunningly beautiful, also makes these areas particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The steep slopes and narrow valleys exacerbate the impact of flash floods, which can occur with little warning and with devastating force. These floods are often triggered by intense rainfall, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), or the rapid melting of snow and glaciers—a process that has accelerated due to rising global temperatures. The result is a cascade of destructive water that sweeps through villages, washing away homes, infrastructure, and agricultural fields. For the communities living in these high-altitude regions, the consequences of such flooding are catastrophic. The ceaseless floods not only displace entire communities, forcing them to abandon their homes and ancestral lands, but also destroy the very foundation of their livelihoods—fragile mountain farming. Agriculture in these regions is already a challenging endeavor, given the limited arable land and harsh climatic conditions. However, the increasing frequency and intensity of floods have made farming even more precarious, as fertile soil is eroded, irrigation systems are damaged, and crops are destroyed. This has led to a severe reduction in agricultural productivity, further exacerbating food insecurity and economic vulnerability in these already marginalized communities. In addition to the direct impacts on agriculture, the floods have also disrupted the social fabric of these communities. Displacement often means that families are separated, traditional ways of life are lost, and social support networks are weakened. The psychological toll of such repeated disasters cannot be overstated, as the constant threat of losing one’s home and livelihood creates a pervasive sense of insecurity and despair. The compounded effects of these climate phenomena—ranging from flash floods to glacial melt—underscore the urgent need for comprehensive and immediate action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. For regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, this means not only addressing the root causes of climate change by reducing global greenhouse gas emissions but also implementing targeted adaptation strategies to protect these vulnerable communities. Such strategies could include the construction of flood defenses, the development of early warning systems for GLOFs, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices that are resilient to the changing climate. Moreover, there is a critical need for greater investment in the infrastructure of these remote areas. Improved roads, bridges, and communication networks can help ensure that communities are better connected and more resilient in the face of disasters. Education and capacity-building programs are also essential, enabling local populations to develop the skills and knowledge necessary to adapt to the new realities of a changing climate. In conclusion, the situation in mountainous regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral is a stark reminder of the disproportionate impact that climate change can have on the world’s most vulnerable communities. The relentless flooding and the resulting threats to their homes, agriculture, and way of life call for urgent and coordinated action at all levels—local, national, and global. Only through a concerted effort to both mitigate and adapt to climate change can we hope to safeguard the future of these communities and the unique environments they inhabit. Since 2016, each successive month and year has been progressively warmer than previous records, making it increasingly clear that the planet is undergoing unprecedented and accelerating warming. This alarming trend has had profound implications for the glaciers across northern Pakistan, particularly intensifying the glacial melt in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral. These areas are now on the frontline of climate change, experiencing significant and far-reaching impacts that not only threaten local communities but also have broader implications for Pakistan as a whole. Gilgit-Baltistan is a region of immense strategic importance for Pakistan, particularly in terms of its water resources. The glaciers in this region are critical sources of the country’s major rivers, which are vital for agriculture across Pakistan's southern plains. As these glaciers continue to melt at an accelerated pace, the consequences are dire: increased flooding during the monsoon season, more frequent and severe glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and a long-term threat to the water supply that sustains millions of people and the nation's agricultural backbone. The region's vulnerability was starkly demonstrated in 2010, well before the Paris Agreement was signed, when Gilgit-Baltistan witnessed some of the worst floods in its history. These floods resulted in colossal losses to the fragile mountain economy, devastating homes, infrastructure, and agricultural lands. The floods also triggered catastrophic landslides. It is during this year that Attabad in upper Hunza witnessed a horrific landslip which dammed the Hunza River and created what is now known as Attabad Lake. This event alone displaced thousands of people and submerged entire villages, illustrating the severe risks that such natural disasters pose in this mountainous region. In the years since, the frequency and intensity of flash floods have only increased, becoming increasingly attributable to the worsening impacts of climate change. For example, just two years ago, a massive flash flood from the area opposite Juglote (Guroh) temporarily dammed the Hunza River. This event caused tremendous property damage, with half of the land in this popular tourist spot being submerged and washed away. The flash flood not only disrupted lives and livelihoods but also underscored the growing unpredictability and danger of such events in the region. This year, 2024, has already seen some of the worst flooding in recent memory across Gilgit-Baltistan. Reports from all over the territory indicate a pattern of widespread destruction. According to a video report by Daily Rehbar on August 5, 2024, there have been severe floods in multiple locations, including Chalt (Nagar), Guro, Rahimabad, Nomal, Shimish, Joel, and Danyore. In some of these areas, floodwaters entered the homes of residents, causing significant damage and forcing people to evacuate. In Passu, Upper Hunza, the Hunza River’s tidal waves became so severe that they threatened to disrupt traffic on the Karakoram Highway (KKH), particularly at a point where the highway bends near the entrance of the newly developed settlement of Passu toward the Batura Glacier. Just two days earlier, the Rahimabad Nullah near Gilgit experienced one of the worst floods in recent history. The floodwaters, carrying debris, mud, and stones, blocked temporarily the Hunza River, and the intensity of the flood caused parts of the lower village to become inundated. These events are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern of increasingly severe weather events linked to climate change. Social media is awash with reports of flash floods from all corners of the region, including the Astore Valley, highlighting the widespread and ongoing nature of these disasters momentarily disrupting transport and communication. In summary, the situation in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral has reached a critical point. The relentless warming of the planet is driving an increase in the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters, with devastating effects on the communities and landscapes of these mountainous regions. The ceaseless flash floods, landslides, and glacial melts underscore the urgent need for comprehensive, immediate action to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. Without such action, the future of these regions—and the vital resources they provide to Pakistan—remains in jeopardy. Pakistan, as a developing country with an economy heavily reliant on agriculture, is facing increasingly complex challenges due to its underdeveloped health and sanitation infrastructure. This situation is particularly dire in the country's peripheral and rural areas, where access to essential services is already limited. As the global community works to curb greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change, it is imperative that Pakistan also intensifies its efforts to adapt to these changing conditions. Central to this adaptation strategy must be the enhancement of forest cover and the implementation of extensive tree plantation programs, especially in the most vulnerable regions. This challenge is not unique to Pakistan but is shared by other South Asian countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Each of these nations must invest in building the resilience of their populations to better cope with the ongoing and future impacts of climate change. Strengthening adaptive capacities, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and safeguarding water resources will be critical for mitigating the adverse effects on the region’s economies and livelihoods. For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. The agricultural sector, which forms the backbone of the national economy, is directly threatened by the effects of global warming. This threat is even more acute in the mountainous regions of Gilgit-Baltistan, where the economy and the very lives of the people are intricately tied to the natural environment. The invaluable glaciers in Gilgit-Baltistan, which serve as vital water reservoirs for the entire country, are depleting and retreating at an alarming rate. This rapid glacial melt poses formidable dangers, not just to the local mountain economy, but to Pakistan’s overall water security and agricultural productivity. The urgency of the situation has not gone unnoticed. A recent report by a local media outlet on social media aptly called for the declaration of a climate change emergency in Gilgit-Baltistan to address the worsening situation. This call to action underscores the critical need for immediate and coordinated efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and to implement robust adaptation measures. Without such interventions, the threats posed by climate change will continue to grow, with devastating consequences for both the economy and human lives in Pakistan and across South Asia.