Horrific GLOF Phenomena

By Syed Shamsuddin

THE CLIMATE CHANGE phenomena obtaining in the high mountainous areas of Gilgit-Baltistan today do not bode well for the future of the glaciers, glacial and snow stocks that serve as very vital water resource for the downstream populations of the country. A close look at what is happening on the mountains becomes crystal clear from the periodic ‘weather alerts’ notified by the relevant quarters which underscore a serious view to be taken of this complex problem which concerns everyone everywhere. The matter therefore, calls for extraordinary efforts to come to grips with the situations arising out of precipitating climate change effects. This indubitably necessitates enhancing the preparedness level against climate change impacts by ensuring solid steps for making the vulnerable communities very well-poised in terms of resilience against such an imminent natural disaster. The most recent ‘weather alert’ coming the day before from ‘Government of Pakistan, Cabinet Secretariat, (Aviation Division), Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad, vide Weather Alert dated 14.08.2020 (05:00PM) says that ”there will be persistent temperatures from today to 17th August 2020 followed by westerly wave on the evening of 17th August 2020. Resultantly the rate of melting of snow and/or ice will remain high on 15th and 16th followed by rain event on 17th August 2020 which could trigger GLOF events in the vulnerable areas of Gigit-Baltistan especially Bagrote, Yasin, Hunza, Shigar, Ghanche and Gilgit. Local communities are advised to remain vigilant and observe precautionary measures.” This lends credence to the very idea how the highest parts of the planet has been impacted by human activity and how it ought to be a real wakeup call for every one of us to remain wary over the accelerating climate action underway that results into extreme weather patterns. Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is said to occurs when the dam containing a glacial lake fails. An event similar to GLOF, where a body of water by a glacier melts or overflows the dam which consists of glacier ice or a terminal moraine failure of which can happen due to erosion and a buildup of water pressure, an avalanche of rock or heavy snow, an earthquake or cryoseism, volcanic eruptions under the ice, or if a large enough portion of a glacier breaks off and massively displaces the water in a glacial lake at its base. It is to be seen that experts kept warning of global warming meltdown. One such prognostication dating back to two decades back said that there would be the chance of a dramatic rise in the world’s sea levels over the next century due to global warming, according to a new risk assessment published on Friday. The survey – by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Norwegian environmental safety organization, Det Norske Veritas – said there was a five percent change of the giant West Antarctic Ice Sheet disintegrating due to climate change and and raising ea levels by one metre (yard) in next 100 years. “You have to balance the likelihood against the severity of the impacts, and in this case even a five per cent chance of this happening is really damn serious,” said scientist David Vaughan of BAS, responsible for British scientific research in Antarctica. Scientists have already predicted a rise in sea levels of 5cm over the next century due to a combination of climate change and increased extraction of ground water, even with no contribution from melting Antarctic ice. “So we might be looking at something like one and a half metres in the next century,” Vaughan said. Vaughan said the possible breakup of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which accounts for 13 per cent of ice on the frozen continent, had nothing to do with the impact of human industrial activity on the climate change, but was part of a far older process. But he said major world polluters could not walk away from the problem. “The potential impact of a major change in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are severe - sea level rise will be fantastically expensive for developed nations with coastal cities and dire for poor populations in low lying areas,” Vaughan said. Not only would there b flooding on a potentially vast scale, but changes in ocean currents could also have untold consequences on weather patterns, he added. Previous calculations have said low-lying countries such as Bangladesh could lose 17 pr cent of its farmland if sea levels rose by one metre, and small island nations could be completely swamped, reported Reuters. As against this, a recent report says how Canada’s last intact ice-shelf just collapsed with the area of the Milne Ice Shelf lay reduced by 43 percent. How can it be gainsaid that man is a part of Nature with his birth being a natural phenomenon and his genesis lying in nature. 

Man’s growth like other living beings, takes place in nature which sustains life whilst man draws his food from the nature. Humankind’s newer ailments result from and become ascribable to his departure from the safe rules of nature while cures lay in derivatives natural growth. What becomes construable then is alongside the incremental climate change, there has been witnessed a dramatic rise in the form of various diseases, epidemics and pandemics on the globe especially from 1930s onward topping them all is the COVID-19 which is wreaking havoc on the planet with no cure found yet. Put in all brevity, human health, progress and prosperity inexorably depends on the environmental health of the planet where for being enabled to survive by benefitting from the natural resources. He has to learn from forces acting and reacting in nature and to regulate accordingly or avail of them by harnessing forces of nature to meet sparingly his present needs whilst simultaneously ensuring the those of his posterity. His knowledge is derivable from strict observance of nature and adherence to experience of action and reaction, cause and effect in nature. Human body is a part of matter in nature and so is man mortal albeit indestructible component of earth. Man is great but only earthly as he cannot inhabit any other planet. This is notwithstanding the fact that he can manage visit to some but nonetheless, cannot live there as strenuous experimentation has brought forth till today. What has emerged from all the strivings till now that man, though getting reckoned with as the super-most among the creation of this earth nevertheless has limited capacities regardless of highest degree of scientific knowledge when juxtaposed to and viewed in terms of the omnipotent forces of Nature. Reverting again to the main theme id est ‘climate change’, it is pertinent to refer to yet another report on Siberia – the land of ‘black snow, blood rain, and spontaneous soar eclipses’. It stands divulged that this part of the planet has set a dire new climate record with temperature in the far-northern town of Verkhoyansk breaking 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) for the first time, on 20th June – which verifiably got reckoned with as the hottest-ever temperature documented above the Arctic Circle, reported Washington Post. The town it said, has one of the most extreme ranges on Earth, with winter lows hitting an average of minus 56F (minus 49C) and a previous al time summer high of 98.96F (37.2C, as emanating from Britannica.com. On Saturday, several weather stations reported a new high of 100.4F – the town’s all-time hottest temperature since record keeping began in 1885. The following day i.e, 21st also reported a high of 95.3 (35.2C) indicating the previous day’s heat not to be a blip it said. On the heels of the Earth’s climate thus being off the rails, Gilgit-Batistan is experiencing sweltering hot these days with temperature soaring Horrific GLOF Phenomena By Syed Shamsuddin THE CLIMATE CHANGE phenomena obtaining in the high mountainous areas of Gilgit-Batistan today do not bode well for the future of the glaciers, glacial and snow stocks that serve as very vital water resource for the downstream populations of the country. A close look at what is happening on the mountains becomes crystal clear from the periodic ‘weather alerts’ notified by the relevant quarters which underscore a serious view to be taken of this complex problem which concerns everyone everywhere. The matter therefore, calls for extraordinary efforts to come to grips with the situations arising out of precipitating climate change effects. This indubitably necessitates enhancing the preparedness level against climate change impacts by ensuring solid steps for making the vulnerable communities very well-poised in terms of resilience against such an imminent natural disaster. The most recent ‘weather alert’ coming the day before from ‘Government of Pakistan, Cabinet Secretariat, (Aviation Division), Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad, vide Weather Alert dated 14.08.2020 (05:00PM) says that ”there will be persistent temperatures from today to 17th August 2020 followed by westerly wave on the evening of 17th August 2020. Resultantly the rate of melting of snow and/or ice will remain high on 15th and 16th followed by rain event on 17th August 2020 which could trigger GLOF events in the vulnerable areas of Gigit-Baltistan especially Bagrote, Yasin, Hunza, Shigar, Ghanche and Gilgit. Local communities are advised to remain vigilant and observe precautionary measures.” This lends credence to the very idea how the highest parts of the planet has been impacted by human activity and how it ought to be a real wakeup call for every one of us to remain wary over the accelerating climate action underway that results into extreme weather patterns. Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is said to occurs when the dam containing a glacial lake fails. An event similar to GLOF, where a body of water by a glacier melts or overflows the dam which consists of glacier ice or a terminal moraine failure of which can happen due to erosion and a buildup of water pressure, an avalanche of rock or heavy snow, an earthquake or cryoseism, volcanic eruptions under the ice, or if a large enough portion of a glacier breaks off and massively displaces the water in a glacial lake at its base. It is to be seen that experts kept warning of global warming meltdown. One such prognostication dating back to two decades back said that there would be the chance of a dramatic rise in the world’s sea levels over the next century due to global warming, according to a new risk assessment published on Friday. The survey – by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Norwegian environmental safety organization, Det Norske Veritas – said there was a five percent change of the giant West Antarctic Ice Sheet disintegrating due to climate change and and raising ea levels by one metre (yard) in next 100 years. “You have to balance the likelihood against the severity of the impacts, and in this case even a five per cent chance of this happening is really damn serious,” said scientist David Vaughan of BAS, responsible for British scientific research in Antarctica. Scientists have already predicted a rise in sea levels of 5cm over the next century due to a combination of climate change and increased extraction of ground water, even with no contribution from melting Antarctic ice. “So we might be looking at something like one and a half metres in the next century,” Vaughan said. Vaughan said the possible breakup of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which accounts for 13 per cent of ice on the frozen continent, had nothing to do with the impact of human industrial activity on the climate change, but was part of a far older process. But he said major world polluters could not walk away from the problem. “The potential impact of a major change in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are severe - sea level rise will be fantastically expensive for developed nations with coastal cities and dire for poor populations in low lying areas,” Vaughan said. Not only would there b flooding on a potentially vast scale, but changes in ocean currents could also have untold consequences on weather patterns, he added. Previous calculations have said low-lying countries such as Bangladesh could lose 17 pr cent of its farmland if sea levels rose by one metre, and small island nations could be completely swamped, reported Reuters. As against this, a recent report says how Canada’s last intact ice-shelf just collapsed with the area of the Milne Ice Shelf lay reduced by 43 percent.

How can it be gainsaid that man is a part of Nature with his birth being a natural phenomenon and his genesis lying in nature. Man’s growth like other living beings, takes place in nature which sustains life whilst man draws his food from the nature. Humankind’s newer ailments result from and become ascribable to his departure from the safe rules of nature while cures lay in derivatives natural growth. What becomes construable then is alongside the incremental climate change, there has been witnessed a dramatic rise in the form of various diseases, epidemics and pandemics on the globe especially from 1930s onward topping them all is the COVID-19 which is wreaking havoc on the planet with no cure found yet. Put in all brevity, human health, progress and prosperity inexorably depends on the environmental health of the planet where for being enabled to survive by benefitting from the natural resources. He has to learn from forces acting and reacting in nature and to regulate accordingly or avail of them by harnessing forces of nature to meet sparingly his present needs whilst simultaneously ensuring the those of his posterity. His knowledge is derivable from strict observance of nature and adherence to experience of action and reaction, cause and effect in nature. Human body is a part of matter in nature and so is man mortal albeit indestructible component of earth. Man is great but only earthly as he cannot inhabit any other planet. This is notwithstanding the fact that he can manage visit to some but nonetheless, cannot live there as strenuous experimentation has brought forth till today. What has emerged from all the strivings till now that man, though getting reckoned with as the super-most among the creation of this earth nevertheless has limited capacities regardless of highest degree of scientific knowledge when juxtaposed to and viewed in terms of the omnipotent forces of Nature. Reverting again to the main theme id est ‘climate change’, it is pertinent to refer to yet another report on Siberia – the land of ‘black snow, blood rain, and spontaneous soar eclipses’. It stands divulged that this part of the planet has set a dire new climate record with temperature in the far-northern town of Verkhoyansk breaking 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) for the first time, on 20th June – which verifiably got reckoned with as the hottest-ever temperature documented above the Arctic Circle, reported Washington Post. The town it said, has one of the most extreme ranges on Earth, with winter lows hitting an average of minus 56F (minus 49C) and a previous al time summer high of 98.96F (37.2C, as emanating from Britannica.com. On Saturday, several weather stations reported a new high of 100.4F – the town’s all-time hottest temperature since record keeping began in 1885. The following day i.e, 21st also reported a high of 95.3 (35.2C) indicating the previous day’s heat not to be a blip it said. On the heels of the Earth’s climate thus being off the rails, Gilgit-Batistan is experiencing sweltering hot these days with temperature soaring as portrayed by the recent ‘warning’ issued by the Meteorological department. The only way out in the circumstances is a response by way of resilience and preparedness albeit the latter has to be combined with gearing up efforts to bring about maximal vegetation and afforestation. This is fundamentally because deforestation and forest degradation, it said, cause about 17 percent of global GHG emissions while reducing deforestation and promoting afforestation and reforestation may provide up to 30 percent of the cost-effective global mitigation potential. This is in fact, what prompted the present government to embark on ten million tree tsunami – a program which inevitably has to have as its major focus on maximal plantation in all such mountainous parts host to invaluable glacial stocks serving as veritable life-vein to the downstream population of the country. Let it be hoped that Gilgit-Baltistan assumes centrality in the grandiose scheme of ‘tree tsunami’ in the country in seeing that the area has is a horrifically sparse forest cover of merely 4 percent in the face of the grave threats posed by hazardous situation stemming from the climate change phenomena as referred to in the above. There have been complaints of lumberjacking at some places at a time when raising forests alone may help combat the dystopia of the contemporary life. Acts on the part of such unscrupulously elements need be thwarted effectively at this critical juncture when dollops of resources are needed to be devoted to agro-forestry in this area instead of the past habit of simply adding a mite more to the crumbs that have been the fate of this underfed sector. Last but not least is a mention to the effect that Gigit-Baltistan gets reckoned with a veritable haven for tourists of all hues and colors the world over generally whilst deemed a particular paradise for climbers particularly. The region is home to innumerable peaks over 7000m including K2 (2nd highest in the word), four of the world’s 14 summits above 8000m while the beauty and splendor of its valleys attract multitudes from all over the globe. Over the preceding few years, there has been a surge in number of domestic tourists which ironically slumped during the pandemic. As they were all eagerly awaiting a green signal, the announcement on 8th August resulted into an unimaginable influx with the surge going on unabated. This could be viewed something very much propitious but at the same time, there is growing need of dissemination of knowledge among them to adhere strictly to the SOPs besides espousing an unswerving environment-friendliness and avoid littering during the course of their stay here for reasons mentioned in the above. The writer is a Gilgit-based freelance contributor, blogger. He can be reached at Email: shamskazmi.syed@gmail.com. For visiting blog: www.windowtogb.blogspot.com as portrayed by the recent ‘warning’ issued by the Meteorological department. The only way out in the circumstances is a response by way of resilience and preparedness albeit the latter has to be combined with gearing up efforts to bring about maximal vegetation and afforestation. This is fundamentally because deforestation and forest degradation, it said, cause about 17 percent of global GHG emissions while reducing deforestation and promoting afforestation and reforestation may provide up to 30 percent of the cost-effective global mitigation potential. This is in fact, what prompted the present government to embark on ten million tree tsunami – a program which inevitably has to have as its major focus on maximal plantation in all such mountainous parts host to invaluable glacial stocks serving as veritable life-vein to the downstream population of the country. Let it be hoped that Gilgit-Baltistan assumes centrality in the grandiose scheme of ‘tree tsunami’ in the country in seeing that the area has is a horrifically sparse forest cover of merely 4 percent in the face of the grave threats posed by hazardous situation stemming from the climate change phenomena as referred to in the above. There have been complaints of lumberjacking at some places at a time when raising forests alone may help combat the dystopia of the contemporary life. Acts on the part of such unscrupulously elements need be thwarted effectively at this critical juncture when dollops of resources are needed to be devoted to agro-forestry in this area instead of the past habit of simply adding a mite more to the crumbs that have been the fate of this underfed sector. 

Last but not least is a mention to the effect that Gigit-Baltistan gets reckoned with a veritable haven for tourists of all hues and colors the world over generally whilst deemed a particular paradise for climbers particularly. The region is home to innumerable peaks over 7000m including K2 (2nd highest in the word), four of the world’s 14 summits above 8000m while the beauty and splendor of its valleys attract multitudes from all over the globe. Over the preceding few years, there has been a surge in number of domestic tourists which ironically slumped during the pandemic. As they were all eagerly awaiting a green signal, the announcement on 8th August resulted into an unimaginable influx with the surge going on unabated. This could be viewed something very much propitious but at the same time, there is growing need of dissemination of knowledge among them to adhere strictly to the SOPs besides espousing an unswerving environment-friendliness and avoid littering during the course of their stay here for reasons mentioned in the above. The writer is a Gilgit-based freelance contributor, blogger. He can be reached at Email: shamskazmi.syed@gmail.com. For visiting blog: www.windowtogb.blogspot.com